Honeywell forecast for business aircraft 2008-2018

[FLYAIR10]

In its 17th annual Business Aviation Outlook , Honeywell forecasts delivery of approximately 17,000 new business aircraft from 2008 through 2018, generating expected industry sales of $300 billion.

2008 marks the fifth consecutive year of industry expansion since the last industry slowdown in 2003. Year-to-date, the number of aircraft delivered is up almost 22 percent compared with the same point in 2007, and industry-wide new jet delivery revenues are also up just over 22 percent.

For 2008, Honeywell Aerospace forecasts deliveries of nearly 1,200 new business jets for the first time in history, up from 1020 in 2007, a 15 percent increase, despite an uncertain economy in North America. Deliveries in 2009 are expected to range between 1,300 and 1,400 jets depending on how quickly several new programs are able to ramp up.

“New Aircraft sales have remained at record levels” said Rob Wilson, President, Business and General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace. “2008 will add to the string of record years the industry has experienced and order intake across most business jet categories remains strong, consistent with last year’s forecast. Aircraft backlogs currently equate to nearly three years worth of deliveries, so 2008 and 2009 still shape up to be strong years for the industry.”

Year to date new jet orders have risen roughly 20-25 percent over first half 2007 levels, however a sizable portion of these orders are for new models entering service in 2012 and beyond. Honeywell believes that order intake will moderate to more sustainable levels in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. Nevertheless, available measures of total industry book-to-bill ratio are still running at or over two-to-one so far in 2008.

While the overall outlook for the OEM portion of the industry remains positive, recent data from the FAA and Euro-control points to reduced business aircraft flight activity in the U.S. and Europe for the rest of this year and potentially impacting 2009 flight operations. Operators appear to be reacting to economic pressures and unexpected fuel price increases by reducing activity and in some cases putting aircraft up for sale.

Many Flight department budgets for 2008 did not account for substantially higher fuel costs. Some report reduced flying activity or flights at slower cruise speeds to economize on fuel to remain within funded budget levels. 2009 budgets may be adjusted to account for higher fuel costs restoring some ability to increase utilization, but we also note that for the first time in a number of years, U.S. survey respondents indicated they intend to use their aircraft less in the near term. Utilization plans reported in the rest of the world are generally more favorable.

Global Purchase Expectations Stable
The 2008 survey indicates record aircraft deliveries will continue into 2009 with a likely peak next year or in 2010. North American purchase expectations improved slightly, but expectations in several other world regions softened to some extent. In total, respondents to this year’s survey said they expect to replace or expand the equivalent of about 32 percent of their fleets over the next five years, within one percent of the level recorded in the 2007 survey.

The stability in overall purchase expectations is supported by the increasingly global nature of the industry. International demand now accounts for about 45-55 percent of the new aircraft purchase plans projected over the next five years. Coupled with very high order rates from non U.S. customers over the past few years already reflected in the existing backlog, the regional mix of deliveries will continue to reflect this global shift in share.

Purchase expectations trended up in North America and Latin America, declined moderately in Europe and the Middle East and fell more noticeably in Asia. Aggregating all regions, five-year purchase expectations equaled the 2007 levels and remain well above the 24 percent average recorded for several years prior to 2007. Between 2009 and 2013, the 2008 survey indicates a demand for 5,200 aircraft globally, excluding demand from fractional ownership or branded charter start up businesses and piston aircraft owner trade –ups into jet aircraft. The 2008 survey projection represents a 14percent increase over the five year demand estimated from a year ago.

Press release Honeywell - 4 October 2008

[jan_olieslagers]

Well well, business aviation is doing better than the airlines apparently. One more confirmation: http://www.avweb.com/news/nbaa/NBAA2008 ... 936-1.html about a twin from Socata. Jet or turboprop or diesel seems to be undecided as yet...

[AyeZer]

Last year what is the analysis of this Honeywell forecast for business aircraft? I have some reports that this is my topic and in other weeks I am going to report about Refrigerator Water Filters . So I am expecting to some answers in my question. Any answers will be appreciated.